Yay! We can all count on a future of cheap, high-quality healthcare!* In honor of the AHCA bill’s passing the House this week, I became sick as a dog, so have not been as active with my reading. That said, I did manage to come out of my haze long enough to find a few interesting articles.
Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela President, Calls for a Rewrite of the Constitution (NY Times). Happy May Day, everyone! Workers of the World, Unite! Venezuela will be in the depths of a civil war by mid-summer after years of horrendous, criminal use of the nation’s abundant natural resources.
Populism Is Great for Stock Returns (Bloomberg). I have been very cautious about the Trump market simply because so many of the policies President Trump espouses are clearly negative in the long-term. After reading this article, though, I thought perhaps it was time for me to snap out of my bias. Apparently, stock markets do very well under populist leaders – thanks to the government give-aways and feelings of confidence and national pride prompted by the nationalist leader. Longer-term, results are not great (clearing throat…Venezuela), but the boost in the short-term is hard to miss.
Apple looks to face down Watch critics (The Financial Times). In 2013, I did a valuation of Apple, which was actually quite bullish, but which ended up putting me on the kill lists of some Apple fanboys. The reason? I dared to say that however big the Apple Watch became, it would generate only trivial value compared to that generated by the handset franchise. Four years later, Apple is parading what an important product the Watch is. Tim Cook brags that if it was a separate business, the Watch would be a Fortune 500 company, with revenues of around $6 billion! Small detail not brought up in the article? Trailing twelve-month revenues for Apple as a whole is a disappointing (by recent market reaction) $221 billion business. You do the math, Apple fanboys…
Big oil still nervous after profit rebound (The Financial Times). OPEC cut, but surprise, surprise – shale drillers rushed in and spoiled the party. Time for the House of Sa’ud to acknowledge that it is no longer the global swing producer (maybe it already has…). China has started looking shaky as well, and this seems to have taken some edge off of Asian demand (as well as demand for coking coal, iron, and all sorts of other industrial commodities). My favorite line from this article: “The big international oil companies are like the man who wins $20 on a scratchcard lottery and says: ‘I won’t let it change me.'”
France: A divided nation decides (The Financial Times). C’mon, France. We didn’t bail you out of two world wars just so you could elect a Nazi! Do the right thing this weekend, will you!
The Financial Times’ reporting in this article is slightly more nuanced and informative than my commentary…highly recommended reading for those who want to understand the social stresses underlying the French elections.
* For all people who are healthy enough not to need healthcare.