It has taken a lot of digging to estimate a fair value for Caterpillar! It is a fascinating company to analyze, with a great many moving parts.

In the end, we wanted a simple, straight-forward bearish portfolio holding, but we found that the Caterpillar story is more nuanced. While exposed to commodity prices, its management has proven itself very adept at maintaining consistent profitability in the face of boom and bust cycles.

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