Not much has changed on an operational level since December 2015 when we published a Tear Sheet with the same basic option strategy at about the same stock price level. However, since that time, Whole Foods has bought back a large amount of its own stock and proportion of short interest to shares outstanding has risen several percentage points to over 13%. In other words, IOI’s strategy is directionally in line with a crowded short position, so is subject to risks brought about by a “short squeeze.”
Our valuation range lies to the downside, and our worst-case assumptions might even be too rosy. See our newest IOI Tear Sheet for the details.